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Sunday, 07 November 2004

  • Currently Playing
    Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
    By Klaus Badelt
    see related

    "Damn Bible Thumpers"

    I believe that I've heard and read the phrase "Bible Thumpers" more this week than the rest of my life combined.  It seems that every Democratic columnist and staunch supporter believes that the reason John Kerry lost the election was because of a few "facts":

    • Everyone who voted for George Bush is homophobic.
    • Everyone who voted for George Bush is an idiot.
    • Everyone who voted for George Bush is a fundamentalist christian.
    • There are lots of stupid, homophobic, fundamentalist christians in America.

    All right.  First, someone needs to explain "Bible Thumper" to me.  From the context, I gather its a combination of all three of the above characteristics.  Unfortunately, this is not really the case.

    First of all, let me address a logic issue here.  Let's take this phrase:

    It is raining, therefore the ground will be wet.

    Now, what if I were to say:

    The ground is wet, therefore it is raining

    This is an incorrect logical jump.  As you can imagine, there are many reasons for the ground to be wet.  While raining does make the ground wet (validating the first), the ground could be wet because of snow, or a burst water main, or for many reasons.  The second statement is, logically, invalid.  So, when you say,

    If you are an evangelical/born again christian, you probably voted for Bush

    it is statistically valid.  According to the exit polls (courtesy CNN.com), 78% of self-identified evangelical/born again christians voted for Bush.  However, that same group of people make up only 23% of the people who voted.  It is therefore illogical to say,

    If you voted for Bush, you are probably a born-again/evangelical christian

    As for the idiot claim, the only real statistics you can look at are education.  While this may or may not be a good indicator of intelligence, often times people mistake ignorance for stupidity, and I believe the claim that "all republicans are stupid" would include the heading of ignorance in the minds of those people touting that "fact".  So, in this election, Bush led Kerry in votes from:

    • High School Graduates (Bush 52%, Kerry 47%)
    • Some College (Bush 54%, Kerry 46%)
    • College Graduate (Bush 52%, Kerry 46%)

    Kerry led, by 1 percentage point, in "No High School", and, by 11 points, in "Post Graduate Study".  So, by the same token as before, it is logical to say that:

    If you have completed post graduate study, you probably voted for Kerry

    ...well, you know the drill.

    So what about homophobic?  Well, I assume that would mean, in the spirit of what was intended by those who use it in this context, everyone who doesn't approve of any type of homosexual activity.  Well, 37% of Americans believe that there should be "No Legal Recognition" of homosexual unions.  And 60% believe that either marriage or civil unions should be legal.  And, again, saying that everyone who voted for Bush is homophobic is illogical.  Image the look on some people's faces if Republicans stated that "everyone who voted for John Kerry is homosexual."  Sure, there is a difference between homophobia and homosexuality.  But this is about as much of a argument for widespread homophobia as there is for widespread homosexuality specific to either party.

    How about some interesting statistics.  While only 25% of voters considered their votes as being "Against the other candidate" rather than "for their candidate", 70% of those people voted for Kerry.  By this measure, for those who answered this question, 27.6% of people of voted for Kerry voted "for" Kerry, and 17.5% voted "against" Bush.  Compare that to 40.8% of people who voted for Bush voting "for" Bush, and 7.5% voting "against" Kerry.  Of course, the missing percentages could all be whichever way you want to swing that statistic, but it is ironic.  Another thing to note is that 69% of people said their vote was "for" their candidate.  This means that the vote wasn't, by any measure, a "clothespin" vote.  So the "looks like another vote between two weak candidates" is also out.  Sorry, guys

    Next up: Look at all the red on that map!

Friday, 05 November 2004

  • Currently Reading
    The Universe and the Teacup: The Mathematics of Truth and Beauty
    By K. C. Cole
    see related
    Hey man, just shut up, all right? You're wrong.

    I wish I had a penny for every time I heard this phrase in political discussions.  Many times its directed at me, but not for the reason you may think.  It's not because I think Republicans have definite flaws in their logic, or that I think Democrats have definite flaws in their's; it's really because I think that logic flaws are the only true bipartisan politicians.

    My new favorite is this fact: more people voted for Bush than any other President.  Yes, this is true.  And, equally important, this is meaningless.  People attempt to use this fact as if to say "George W. Bush was elected by more people than any president in history!"  Let us examine: the current numbers are as follows (according to CNN.com): Bush received 59,459,765 votes (51%), Kerry received 55,949,407 votes (49%), and Nader received 400,706 votes (1%).  The next closest would be Ronald Reagan in 1984 with 54,455,075, followed by George Bush in 2000, with 50,456,002 votes (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781450.html).  But what does this mean?  Absolutely nothing.  The total vote in 1984 was 92,032,260 votes.  This means that Reagan had about 59% of the popular vote.  This means that he was elected by a larger margin.  This also means that, for George W. to have a higher popular vote and a lower margin of win, that the overall vote must have been much larger.  And, you guessed it: the overall number of votes is now tallied at 115,809,878.  That's an increase of 25% over the numbers in 1984.  For George W. to be the most popular president in history (by popular vote), he would have had to receive approximately 62% of the vote (Warren Harding in 1920), or 71,349,093 votes.  He was well short of this by more than 10 million votes.  All things considered, this statistic is as meaningless as the original.  So what if he wasn't the most popular?  So what if he was the most popular?  The win-all, plurality system the US uses makes no distinction between how well one opponent bests all others.  In fact, it makes no real distinction between who gets the most votes.  We all remember the results of 2000, in which George W. actually received 48% of the popular vote.  The real meaningful statistic there is that less than half of all Americans wanted George W. as President in 2000.  Which means, therefore, that the majority of Americans were, according to their votes, unrepresented by the President of the United States.  Ah, but the plurality system is another rant for another day.

    This has only recently eclipsed the other statistic often used in debates about stem cell research.  I have heard, multiple times, "Even if you are for stem cell research, you should vote for Bush, because he is the first President in history to federally fund stem cell research!"  Human embryonic stem cell research began in 1998, when James Thomson (The University of Wisconsin-Madison) developed the first human embryonic stem cell line(http://www.laskerfoundation.org/news/stemcell/history.html).  So this is to say that no President before Clinton had the ability.  OK, so that makes the majority of that statistic worthless.  But what about Clinton?  Supposing this statistic is really attempting to say that "George W. supported stem cell research and Bill didn't!"  It is correct to say that Bill Clinton never did anything for direct federal funding of stem cell research.  But what he did do was back the National Institute of Health funding of stem cell research (http://www.aaas.org/spp/cstc/stc/stc01/01-09/stem2.htm).  For those of you who don't know, the National Institute of Health is an agency under the US Department of Health and Human Services, which received over $27 trillion dollars of federal funding in 2003 (http://www.nih.gov/about/).  This means that Bill Clinton backed a federally funded government agency's funding of stem cell research.  The fact that it isn't directly funded is rather meaningless in this respect, except to say that rather than congress deciding how much money to appropriate to stem cell research, the NIH gets to appropriate the money.

    So there's today's rant.  Write me nasty things, call me names, attack my arguments.  In the end, it will make us all stronger people.  All I ask, whatever you believe, is that you research your facts and use logic to decide what really is a meaningful statistic.

fairandbalanced

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    • Birthday: 5/16/1985
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    • Member Since: 11/5/2004

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